It’s fun to speculate, pontificate and proliferate about “what if” early in the season. It kind of reminds me of what we do in business when we “forecast” future sales: educated guesses at best. I often joke and tell our people in business that the only thing you can correctly say about “forecasts” is that they are going to be wrong! Unfortunately, the same is true about early-season pontificating – we are all going to be wrong to a degree. For those of us in the media it is perhaps mostly about seeing how “right how often” we can guesstimate. HOWEVER, after 6-8 weeks of games, the guess work should tighten up in accuracy quite a bit.
At the conclusion of this article, I will propose my personal top ten BCS teams as of today. With at best the “fuzzy logic” used in the BCS polls, I (humorously) half suspect Ohio State could drop in the BCS poll simply because we didn’t blow anyone out Saturday. Forget the fact it was a bye week, we are simply NOT a media darling. Seriously, we SHOULD move up a little just due to the losses of Utah, Alabama and Oklahoma. Here are my general thoughts and opinions on the general college, BCS and Big Ten conference landscapes after this last Saturday of games:
On the BCS top ten teams (as of 11/05/2010)
1. Oregon (9-0, 6-0 Pac-10) Oregon had an off day with only scoring 53 points against University of Washington Huskies. Their remaining games; Cal, Arizona and Oregon State. There are no real challengers in these three so it is highly probably the Ducks fly undefeated and are one of the teams in the national championship game. Just as a voice of balance and reason, Oregon has not faced any serious defense and their own defense is just decent. However, when they score 50-60 points a game they feel they can probably outlast and outscore anyone. This juggernaut is real.
2. Auburn (10-0, 6-0 SEC) Auburn is also for real. But, they too only have a decent defense giving up an average of 24.3 points per game. This includes giving up a season high point total of 43 against Arkansas. But, they too are an offensive powerhouse like Oregon and just blast away having scored 50 or more points 5 times this year.
3. TCU (10-0, 6-0 MWC) TCU has something Auburn and Oregon DON’T – a good defense. Their opponents this year have averaged 8.5 points per game. Yes, their schedule is suspect, but they are still 10-0. Well coached with great uniforms, they are still largely an unknown to me relative to other traditional powerhouses. Their conference schedule doesn’t help them either.
4. Boise State (8-0, 4-0 WAC) OK, get ready to write your letters to me about my stupidity, but I just still can’t accept Boise State as a serious top five BCS team. Why? Primarily their strength of schedule with opponents this year including such powerhouses as; Wyoming, New Mexico State, Toledo, Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. Yes, they are a good team and yes, their coaches are outstanding, with the head coach not only having success but creating a total organization that has made them a successful team (and will continue to do so consistently). This is something I greatly respect and admire. Yes, I remember they beat Oklahoma a couple of years ago but only on the last play of the game with a trick play. Still, they beat Oklahoma, a perceived powerhouse at the time. They will continue to hold a top 4 position in the BCS this year and should win out by holding serve against Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada and Utah State. They can’t do anything about their strength of schedule, so let the speculation continue.
5. Utah (8-1, 5-1 MWC) When I think of Utah football, the one-liner from the movie Top Gun comes to mind, when the aircraft carrier’s captain (Stinger) was talking to Tom Cruise (Maverick) and Anthony Edwards (Goose, Cruise’s rear seat in his aircraft), and said to Goose; “And you, asshole, are lucky to be here.” That reminds me of how I feel about Utah this year. OK, take your shots but my opinion stands.
6. Alabama (7-2, 4-2 SEC) For sure, the nation’s best two loss team this year, but not the super-power first thought at the beginning of the year. Please re-read my opening paragraph. Their season ending rivalry game against Auburn will be in Tuscaloosa this year but could be their third loss. They will drop out of the top 12 in the BCS now. Nick Saban has outstanding coaches and creates an organization that will continue to be a successful machine.
7. Nebraska (8-1, 4-1 Big 12) You all know how big of an Ohio State fan I am, so this is hard for me to say. Nebraska probably should be one of the top five BCS teams in the country. Why, for the same reasons Boise State is so good – their head coach has implemented a total program, organizational-wide, that creates the format for ongoing, fundamentally sound successful teams. It is done with excellent, fundamentally sound coaches who insist upon and get the most out of their players. The coaches seem to almost always have their team prepared, coached and thoroughly schooled against their opponents. Also, like Boise State, Stanford, LSU, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Oregon and Oklahoma State, the players love playing there and want to win for the coaches. Bo Pellini has created an organization where the coaches insist upon fundamentally sound excellence and steady improvement. Pride. Maybe, just maybe, he could be a finalist to replace Jim Tressel when JT decides to retire. He is a Buckeye you know.
8. Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 Big 12) To make things short and to the point, read my comments on Utah just substituting Oklahoma for Utah.
9. Wisconsin(8-1, 4-1 Big Ten) Have I ever mentioned how much I hate Wisky? Please read and substitute my comments on Utah and Nebraska.
10. LSU(8-1, 5-1 SEC) Please read and substitute my comments on Nebraska.
My Big Ten Summary
Illinois is the most improved team since the beginning of this year. Penn State has also improved but still underneath their standards. Iowa is good but over-rated (as I have said for several weeks now). Michigan State is just very well coached with Dantonio building a successful organization. Wisconsin is well coached and has a great infrastructure leading to long term success and will probably have no more losses this year. Indiana, Minnesota and Purdon’t are hapless. Northwestern is a well coached sound team (for them) and are a few players and points away from being a more serious contender. TBGUN – hey, keep winning Rich Rodriguez because I sure don’t want Harbaugh in Ann Arbor again and your defenses are always going to be a joke. Ohio State? We are just three coaches away from being a legitimate top 5 national machine consistently (Jim Bollman, Dick Tressel and Nick Siciliano). Minus that, we are a really good team under Jim Tressel that will always make me and other Buckeyes happy.
Pat’s personal Top 11 BCS standings as of 11/8/2010:
1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. Nebraska
4. LSU
5. TCU
6. Stanford (see my comments for Nebraska and Boise State and substitute Stanford)
7. Wisconsin
8. Ohio State
9. Boise State
10. Michigan State
11. Oklahoma State
Done. Take your shots, but remember where my loyalty rests. I wish OSU were #1 again but strength of schedule lets us down.
Pat (a.k.a pjsbuck)
Editorial: What Games of 11/6/2010
Showed Me
By PJSBuck
November 7, 2010
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