Michigan State University

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October 14th, 2006

Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, Michigan

We are already into week 7 of the college season and with some surprising results.  Michigan State was a preseason #6 in Street & Smith in the conference rankings as well in Lindy’s.  Athlon had them at #7 and Sporting News had them at 8th.  The highest preseason conference ranking was Phil Steele’s had the Spartans tie for 4th.  In all the above listed publications, Ohio State had a preseason rank of 1st.  So where is MSU 7 weeks into the season, can you say tied for LAST place? As to OSU were they are setting tied for 1st!  The only good news for MSU after this weekend, their schedule will get a lot easier.

Ohio State leads the all-time series 24-12 and is 11-5 while playing in East Lansing.  Coach Tressel is 3-0 against MSU including a 35-24 win last year. 

MSU started the season off well.  They were 3-0 at one time winning by an average of 19 points a game.  Then, in the next 3 games they have lost by an average of 8 points, but most of that by in an 18 point lost to Michigan. 

Their most famous lose this season was to Notre Dame when they were up on the Fighting Irish by 16 points going into the 4th quarter and losing by 3.  If that was not bad enough, they were at home against the Fighting Illini, which was to finish an average of 10th place in the conference by the above magazines, the next week to open the Big 10 conference season and lose 20-23. 

Michigan State has the 6th best scoring offense in the Big 10 and is 8th on the scoring defense category.  They are leading the conference in Punting and 2nd in rushing offense.  The 2 areas that need a lot of work for MSU is Penalties, where they are giving up an average of 53.8 yards a game in penalties.  The second area is Red Zone Defense.  Every team that has gotten into there red zone has scored.  The opponents are 15-15 when they are in the red zone with 9 of the 15 is for a touchdown.  OSU on the other hand has been in the Red Zone 26 times and only converted on 21 of them, but of those 21, 18 were TD’s.

What does this all mean?  Ohio State is around an 13.5 to 14.5 point favorite to win this game.  This is a good spread, because we do not know what kind of team is going to show up.  Will the team from the 1st 3 games and an average of 19 point wins, or will the team that has lost the last 3 by an average of 8 points.  This game will be a make or break season for MSU.  They have the chance to upset the best team in the country in their backyard.  Is it going to happen?  No! The fork is in the Spartan team and more importantly the fork is in the coaching staff.  John L Smith is in his 4th year at MSU.  He is 21-21 currently at MSU and 131-81 overall.  The big question is how much longer will he be there?  If he were to win out and win a bowl, we are lead to believe that he could keep his job.  I do not see him winning out, nor do I see him going to a bowl at this rate.   Only time will tell his fate.

MSU was the 1st victory on OSU’s current 13 game win streak.  Let us remember that Ohio State trailed 17-7 late into the second period when Ashton Youboty returned a blocked field goal for 72 yards.  Later the famous duo of Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. hooked up for a pass in the 3rd quarter to go ahead 21-17.  MSU responded with a 6 yard TD to end the 3rd 24-21.  After a TD pass and a 1 yard run by Smith OSU won 35 to 24. 

Here are the facts:

The Buckeyes are the consensus number 1 team in the country.  They received 62 of 63 first place votes in the coached poll, with a 63 of 65 possible votes in the AP poll and 112 of the 114 1st votes in the Harris poll. 

They have 5 weeks before the Michigan game, which knowing Coach Tressel’s style, they will be working on one win at a time.  This game should be over before half, but if the MSU team of the 1st 3 weeks returns, it could be a good game until the 4th quarter, when the better team will show its muscle.

Let’s take our hats off to the Award Candidates:

Seven Ohio State players are listed on the various postseason awards watch lists. Senior Troy Smith and junior Ted Ginn Jr. both are preseason Heisman Trophy candidates. The pair also is listed on the 2006 Walter Camp Player of the Year watch list. Additionally, senior center Doug Datish (Rimington, Lombardi), Ginn Jr. (Biletnikoff), Smith (Manning), sophomore linebacker James Laurinaitis (Bednarik, Lombardi and Butkus), junior offensive tackle Kirk Barton and senior defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock (Lombardi), and junior running back Antonio Pittman (Doak Walker) are listed on various watch lists as major awards candidates.

GO BUCKS

Rick